A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
